Note #25. Concepts of Influence: Vital to “Center of Gravity” Analysis

  • Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D., Brig Gen USAF ret.
  • Strategy
  • No Comments

This Note synthesizes three popular approaches to “Center of Gravity” (COG) and presents Concepts of Influence (COI) as a supplement to COG analysis in the Information Environment (IE). Center of Gravity COG is variously defined as a source of power, moral or physical strength, freedom of action, and will to resist. The usual practice is…

Paper #52. Beyond Doctrinal Plug-Ins: Integrate IO to Win Complex Wars

  • Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D., Brig Gen USAF ret.
  • Security, Strategy
  • No Comments

Winning complex wars requires setting more than military end states. Information-heavy complex problems (ICP’s) in hyper-connected environments can persist for generations (Ehlers and Blannin, Campaigning for Complex Problems). These problem sets require enduring social efforts and information-led operations such as narrative warfare. As in Ukraine and Taiwan, the perpetual fight is to get an adversary to…

Paper #50. All-Effects Warfare and Narrative Strategy in Ukraine 2014 & 2022

  • Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D., Brig Gen USAF ret.
  • Eurasia, Strategy
  • No Comments

Authoritarians wage all-effects warfare that democracies don’t regard as “real war.” The problem is that many so-called peacetime operations are information warfare and narrative strategies designed to shape conditions for “real warfare.” Such as inducing local support of a follow-on invasion force (Ukraine, 2014).  Note: “warfare” refers to methods of war, whereas “war” is a…

Paper #46. A Profession of Effects for the Age of AI: Competitive Strategy and Russian Examples

  • Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D., Brig Gen USAF ret.
  • Cyber, Leadership, Strategy
  • No Comments

If democracies are to compete with savvy authoritarians, we need to up our game in the artificial intelligence (AI) information environment (IE), where out-thought is outfought. Beyond a profession of arms with all-domain military strategy, we need a profession that integrates all effects. Such a profession of effects begins with strategy. Competitive Strategy In an…

Paper #44. China’s Belt and Road Initiative as Combined-Effect Strategy: How Democracies Can Compete

  • Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D., Brig Gen USAF ret.
  • Asia-Pacific, Leadership, Security, Strategy
  • No Comments

ICSL Paper #41 developed “concepts of influence,” a critical component to effective strategy. Concepts of influence are the ways and means that act on will and capability to bring about the ends of strategy. They may be entirely human-created or assisted or created by artificial intelligence. This paper applies concepts of influence to show how…

Paper #41. Concepts of Influence: Critical to Strategy and Human Control of Artificial Intelligence

  • Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D., Brig Gen USAF ret.
  • Cyber, Leadership, Strategy
  • No Comments

Strategy for dynamic end-states must be multi-dimensional to be competitive in the information environment (ICSL Note #22). If operations are not informing and influencing, they become existential rather than instrumental. They justify themselves, which makes for poor strategy. Yet strategy is the competition that matters most for relevant operations. As we consider the three basic…